This report provides an update to the 2022 International Crops Baseline prepared in mid‐January 2022. This update incorporates changes that have occurred between January and early August in agricultural supply, demand, trade, and prices, as well as new information on global economic activity, agricultural, and trade policy that impacts agricultural markets.
Global supply chain disruptions linger from early 2020 COVID19 shutdowns and continue to put upward pressure on agricultural market prices and challenge the ability of supplies to meet demands. The ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022 further stresses global agricultural supplies, along supplies of natural resources important to agricultural production and other industries. Climate impacts such as multi‐year droughts and severe flooding further strain global ability to produce and/or deliver crops necessary to meet global need.
Projections in this report are derived from a deterministic model and do not account for uncertainty of events that would alter reported outcomes. The objective of the baseline is to provide a basis for comparison while performing scenario analyses.
Because the International Crops Baseline covers several crops in a wide geographic distribution, and varying crop years, particularly among Northern and Southern Hemisphere countries, several rules regarding comparisons to USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s August 2022 Production, Supply, and Distribution (PS&D) database are adopted.
- This baseline aligns with the PS&D supply data for 22/23 and demand data for 21/22. However, only production and use of wheat and barley in Northern Hemisphere countries was complete at the time of this analysis. Correspondingly, neither production or use was complete for other baseline crops in the Northern Hemisphere, nor for any baseline crops in the Southern Hemisphere. As such, utilization and trade estimates were not exactly aligned to the latest data available from PS&D.
- Structural changes have been made to the model to improve specification of major traders and improve alignment of modeling priorities with the FAPRI general equilibrium model. Changes include streamlining of explicitly modeled countries and exclusion of global rice modeling. For FAPRI world rice baseline reporting.
- European Union data reflects the 27 countries remaining in the EU post BREXIT. Data representing the United Kingdom is now included in the Rest of World aggregate.
Use the link below to download the complete report (PDF) that includes:
- Macroeconomic Indicators
- Agricultural Commodity Prices
- Global Area Harvested/Global Trade
- Global Stocks‐to‐Use
- Individual commodities