Population

Lincoln County is a rural county bordered by the counties of White Pine, Nye, Clark, and Southern Utah. Located approximately 150 miles from Las Vegas, Lincoln County reported a population of 3,879 in 2002. Between 1985 and 2002, Lincoln County population increased 2.6 percent, while between 1995 and 2002 Lincoln County population decreased 1.8 percent. White Pine County to the north has also experienced similar population trends.

The Nevada State Demographer estimates that Lincoln County’s 2005 population will be 3,824. It is estimated that Lincoln County population will decrease annually less than one percent through 2005. However, by the year 2006 Lincoln County population is estimated to stabilize and experience slight annual increases of less than one percent.

Future Lincoln County population trends can be influenced by specific proposed events including the development and operation of the National Nuclear Storage site at Yucca Mountain, BLM land sale north of Mesquite and Coyote Springs planned community.

Lincoln County location on Nevada map

Tables 1 & 2 provide population and age comparisons.

Table 1. Population Trends
County 2002 1995 1985
Nye 35,039 23,882 14,570
White Pine 8,863 9,609 7,710
Lincoln 3,879 3,951 3,780
Nevada 2,206,022 1,611,593 955,810

Source: Nevada State Demographer

Table 2. Age Distribution of Population (2002)
Age Lincoln People Lincoln Percent Nevada People Nevada Percent
4 & Under 180 4.6 159,386 7.2
5-19 807 20.8 458,690 20.8
20-44 1,455 37.5 824,502 37.3
45-64 741 19.1 521,431 23.6
65+ 696 18.0 246,635 11.2
Total 3,879 100.0 2,210,650 100.0

 Source: Nevada State Demographer

An important component for understanding a community’s population is its educational attainment. This provides insight into the type of workforce available and provides some indication of an area’s educational system.

Table 3 shows the educational attainment levels for residents aged 25 and older in Lincoln County, Nevada, and the United States.

Table 3. Educational Level Completed (2000)
Adults 25 or Older Lincoln Percent Nevada Percent U.S. Percent
0-8 Yrs. Elementary 4.0 6.4 7.5
1-3 Yrs. High School 13.0 12.9 12.1
4 Yrs. High School 37.8 29.3 28.6
1-3 Yrs. College 30.1 33.2 27.4
4+ Yrs. College 15.0 18.2 24.4
Total Population Age 25+ 2,654 1,310,176 182,211,639

 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Employment

In 2000, Lincoln County reported 2,017 jobs, a decrease of 16.6 percent or 403 jobs since 1990. Between 1990 and 2000 Lincoln County population slightly increased approximately one percent, while employment opportunities declined at a much greater rate.

Lincoln County distribution of employment shifted between 1990 and 2000 to resemble economic diversification. For example, Lincoln County’s retail trade sector represents 10.4 percent of the total county jobs in 1990. In 2000 the retail trade sector represented over 16 percent of the total job base. These distribution shifts are also reported in the service, government, and miscellaneous sectors.

It is estimated that over 62 percent of Lincoln County’s total job base is in service and government related industries. The presence of the Nevada Test Site continues to significantly contribute to Lincoln County employment base.

When comparing to surrounding rural counties, White Pine County employment base is similar to Lincoln County. Both are very similar in terms of economic base diversification which has occurred in the last few years. As expected, the State of Nevada has a strong employment base in the service sector, with many of the jobs created in the entertainment area.

Table 4 reports the employment comparisons, by place of employment, by major economic sectors.

Total

Table 4. Employment by Major Economic Sectors
Sectors 1990 Jobs 2000 Jobs 1990 Percent 2000 Percent 2000 Nye Percent 2000 White Pine Percent 2000 Nevada percent
Farm 175 148 7.3 7.3 2.1 4.8 0.4
TPU* 88 64 3.6 3.2 3.3 2.4 4.9
Retail Trade 252 325 10.4 16.1 13.2 17.8 16.0
Service 1,205** 653** 49.8** 32.4** 40.3 24.2 41.8
Government 537 602 22.2 29.9 12.0 32.4 10.1
Other 163** 225** 6.7** 11.2** 29.1 18.4 26.8
Total 2,420 2,017 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

* Transportation and Public Utilities

** Estimated

Table 5. Percent Earnings by Source (2001)
Region Percent Earnings Percent Dividends, Interest, Rents Percent Transfer Payments
Nye 59.5 21.0 19.5
White Pine 63.0 19.4 17.6
Lincoln 63.3 17.9 18.8
Nevada 68.3 21.3 10.4

 Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Similar to employment trends for Lincoln County, Real Earnings are concentrated in two major economic sectors: services and government. It is estimated that nearly 80 percent of the earnings in Lincoln County are in these two major sectors. Between 1990 and 2000 total real earnings decreased 28 percent while employment decreased 16 percent. Several factors may have contributed to Lincoln County’s reduction in real earnings including net reduction in payroll at faster rate than jobs or replacement of higher wage jobs with lower wage jobs.

Table 6 shows the comparison of real earnings by place of employment by major economic sector.

Table 6. Real Earnings by Major Economic Sector (Earnings in 1996 Dollars)
Sectors 1990 Jobs 2000 Jobs 1990 Percent 2000 Percent 2000 Nye Percent 2000 White Pine Percent 2000 Nevada percent
Farm 2,297 1,638 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.6 0.2
TPU* 2,404 3,102 3.1 5.5 4.0 4.9 6.0
Retail Trade 2,504 3,169 3.2 5.6 6.8 9.2 10.0
Service 51,218** 22,521** 65.0** 40.0** 44.4 15.5 39.5
Government 17,644 21,586 22.4 38.3 16.6 48.1 14.4
Other 2,730** 4,287** 3.4** 7.6** 26.1 20.7 29.9
Total 78,797 56,303 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: Regional Economic Information System, Bureau of Economic Analysis

* Transportation and Public Utilities

** Estimated

Table 8. Taxable Retail Sales (in 1996 dollars)
Total Sales ($000) 2002 1995 1990
Nye 265,923 202,146 223,195
White Pine 61,833 163,791 97,833
Lincoln 20,198 17,590 13,180
Nevada 28,905,406 19,966,971 16,288,928
Sales Per Capita 2002 1995 1990
Nye 7,589 8,464 12,270
White Pine 6,977 17,046 10,397
Lincoln 5,207 4,454 3,459
Nevada 13,103 12,390 13,177
Sales Per Capita 2002 1995 1990
Nye 0.93 0.68 0.57
White Pine 0.78 1.37 0.53
Lincoln 0.26 0.35 0.40

Source: Nevada Department of Taxation

To determine how well a county is retaining consumer dollars, retail sales data can be used. The Pull Factor ratio is calculated as follows:

Pull Factor Ratio = Per Capita County Retail Sales divided by Per Capita State Retail Sales

Pull factors are based on values above and below 1.00. If the factor is less than one, the county is losing its fair share. That is, the county’s residents are shopping away from home. If the value exceeds 1.00, it means the county is pulling in retail customers from outside the county.

Lincoln County’s pull factor ratio moderately improved between 1990 and 2002 (.26 vs. .40). This means that Lincoln County’s trade-area capture is less than the population, and that the commercial sector is not capturing all the retail purchases of its own residents. In other words, Lincoln County has sales leakages.

To a lessor degree, adjacent counties Nye and White Pine are also experiencing sales leakages. However for a brief period in 1995, White Pine County had a gain where cons umer’s per capita taxable sales were greater at the county level when compared to the state level. Figure A illustrates Lincoln County retail sales gains/leakages.

In addition, published sales tax data can be studied by economic sector to further identify and explain where leakage is occurring. Both households and businesses need to be surveyed to identify where and why goods are being purchased outside the area. This information could be used to fill the gaps or needs of residents by means of retail goods and services development.

Figure A. Retail Sales Gains/ Leakage

 

Line graph of retail sales gains and leakage to show that White Pine had the highest

Source: Nevada Department of Taxation Nevada State Demographer.

Data From Figure A

References

State of Nevada State Demographer’s Office. Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin Estimates from 1990 to 2001 and Projections from 2002 to 2022 for Nevada and its Counties.

State of Nevada Department of Taxation.

United States Department of Commerce. Regional Economic Information System. Bureau of Economic Analysis: Washington D.C., 2002.

For More Information Contact

University of Nevada Cooperative Extension – Southern Area Center for Economic Development

Buddy Borden, Community Economic Development Specialist

2345 Red Rock, Suite 100

Las Vegas, NV 89146-3160

Phone (702) 222-3130 FAX (702) 222-3100

E-mail: bordenb@unce.unr.edu

Figure A. Retail Sales Gains/ Leakage
Region 1990 1995 2002
Nye less than 1.00 less than 1.00 less than 1.00
Lincoln less than 0.50 less than 0.50 less than 0.50
White Pine less than 1.00 above 1.00 0.50
Nevada 1.00 1.00 1.00
Borden, B. and Harris, T. 2004, Profile for Lincoln County, Nevada January 2004, Extension | University of Nevada, Reno, FS-04-28

Learn more about the author(s)

 

Also of Interest:

 
Road sign saying Lincoln County
Community Assets for Lincoln County, Nevada
The project focuses on providing Nevada’s counties, state and federal agencies, and their partners with quantitative and qualitative baseline data and analyses to better understand the counties’ demographic, social, economic, fiscal, and environmental characteristics, trends, and...
Marlene Rebori, Joe Lednicky, Buddy Borden, Donald Deever 2021, Extension, University of Nevada, Reno
Panaca Elementary School
Industry Top Performers for Lincoln County, Nevada
The project focuses on providing Nevada’s counties, state and federal agencies, and their partners with quantitative and qualitative baseline data and analyses to better understand the counties’ demographic, social, economic, fiscal, and environmental characteristics, trends, and...
B. Borden, L.Thomas, J. Lednicky, H. Gatzke, Donald Deever 2020, Extension, University of Nevada, Reno
Tourism Potential in Lincoln County, Nevada
This special publication contains extensive information on the potential of tourism in Lincoln County, Nevada. Learn about the county resources, wildlife, water, citizens, history, and heritage, and many more.
Gatzke, H. 2007, Extension | University of Nevada, Reno, SP-07-16
Profile of Customers in Southern Lincoln County, Nevada
This factsheet contains profiles of target consumers that will move into new developments in southern Lincoln County. learn about different community plans that will help win these customers with quality and service to improve the future of southern Lincoln County.
Gatzke, H. 2007, Extension | University of Nevada, Reno, FS-07-38