SNOWPACS: Synthesizing kNowledge to Optimize Water Policy for Agriculture under Changing Snowpack

The Challenge

Recent decades have witnessed significant changes in snowpack volume and in the timing of snowmelt across the western United States. These changes, which are expected to intensify due to climate change, have impacted seasonal water availability for agricultural producers and have put stress on water allocation institutions.

What We Are Doing

We are an interdisciplinary team of researchers working to understand how predicted changes in mountain snowpack will alter the quantity and timing of water flows, how agricultural producers and other downstream users will respond to changes in water flows, and how water allocation institutions can be amended to help communities adapt.

Expected Outcome

The goal of the SNOWPACS project is to support the adaptation of agricultural communities in the western United States to shifts in the timing and quantities of snowmelt-derived water supplies. To accomplish this goal, we have assembled an interdisciplinary team of researchers from six institutions who are working together to understand the complex relationships between changes in mountain snowpack, downstream water availability, water allocation institutions, and agricultural production.

This project will provide information and tools to water managers, agriculture producers, and other decision-makers to improve the efficiency of water allocation institutions and support continued agricultural production in snowmelt-fed basins in the western United States.

Project Components

The SNOWPACS project has five components:

• Hydrology
  • Refine predictions for how changes in mountain snowpack impact seasonal water availability in snowmelt-fed basins.
• Agricultural Production
  • Statistically model how agricultural producers' cultivation decisions change in response to changes in seasonal water availability.
• Water Allocation Institutions
  • Analyze how water allocation institutions are likely to adapt to the stress caused by changing seasonal water availability.
• Integrated Hydro-Economic Modeling
  • Integrate hydrologic and economic model(s) to analyze how changes in seasonal water availability impact water deliveries under current allocation institutions and how these institutions can be enhanced to mitigate costs to agriculture.
• Collaborative Research Framework
  • Design and implement a collaborative research framework that integrates all research components and supports knowledge co-production through Technical Advisory Group(s) comprised of local water managers who represent diverse water uses.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the water allocation institutions in the arid West?

Institutions are essentially the "rules" of water allocation. In the arid West, these include such legally-defined systems as prior appropriation doctrine, beneficial use, proportional sharing schemes, private ownership and markets, and modifications to rules that have occurred over time. Prior appropriation (PA) and beneficial use are perhaps the most important factors to consider in the region. Under PA, the first person to divert water for a beneficial purpose acquired a "priority date" at that time to use that specific amount of water for the specific beneficial use indefinitely in the future. Successive claims receive a specific amount and use, with the water delivered by priority date.

Prior appropriation is the predominant institution in all Great Basin states. It facilitated development of irrigated agriculture by a process of permitting changes in place of use (POU) and purpose of use. Landowners can apply for a change in POU while keeping their original quantity and priority of water to irrigate different locations of their land. Water rights can be transferred from irrigation to municipal uses, but transfers are permanent, meaning these rights cannot be transferred back to agriculture.

What do we know about water flows in the arid West?

Mountain snowpack provides a source of water that augments the most significant stocks of water in the region, groundwater and reservoirs, with a regulated water flow over time. Climate changes have recently caused the timing of that flow from mountain snowpack to occur earlier in the season. The degree of these changes in timing means that senior water rights holders (which are more commonly agricultural producers) actually get less water than junior water rights holders (more commonly non-agriculture or municipalities). Currently, the National Water Model (NWM) estimates flows in the arid West. This project will adapt the NWM to the arid West in collaboration with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in order to be better able to predict future flow changes under different climate projections.

How does this issue affect people?

Changing timing of peak water flows creates the potential for winners and losers in water systems. Under the current water allocation institutions in much of the arid West, those with higher priority rights may benefit from earlier peak flows, while newer rights holders may not get to exercise their rights. While the existing institutions offer the ability for rights to be exchanged and water uses to change under certain circumstances, this still can potentially lead to permanent loss of agricultural lands, lower agricultural yields, and higher water costs in municipalities.

Why are economists leading this project?

This project utilizes economic theory and analysis as a lens for understanding the decision makers involved in water allocation. By understanding how water rights holders and managers act to maximize private or social benefit, we can better understand the efficiency or inefficiencies of the current institutions and how alternatives may lead to better overall outcomes. Climate change is leading to more uncertain conditions for water rights holders and managers, which has necessitated improved forecasting and modeling to aid in decision making. In order to address these gaps, economic analysis can build from a foundation of improved hydrologic modeling and greater understanding of the barriers faced by stakeholders and policymakers in taking steps towards adaptation to these new conditions.

Where can I learn more about water law in my state?

• Arizona: visit the Arizona Department of Water Resources page on Laws, Rules and Policies.
• Colorado: visit the Quick Guide to Water Rights and State Water Resources in Colorado.
• Nevada: the Nevada Division of Water Resources Water Law Overview page has information on water law and the role of the state engineers in water allocation.
• Utah: the Utah Division of Water Rights page, Water Right Information has a summary of the history of water in the state and current rights.

Publications and presentations:

Publications

Blumberg, J., Goemans, C. and Manning, D. (2021) “Changing Climate, Changing Institutions: Implications of Drought and Litigation for Colorado Agriculture.” Colorado Water, vol. 38, no. 2.

Gordon, B., Brooks, P., Krogh, S., Boisrame, G., Carroll, R., McNamara, J., Harpold, A., (2022). A data-driven review to understand streamflow risk to climate induced changes in snow dynamics. Environmental Research Letters. 17. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac64b4.

Gordon, B. L., Crow, W. T., Konings, A. G., Dralle, D. N., & Harpold, A. A. (2022). Can we use the water budget to infer upland catchment behavior? The role of data set error estimation and interbasin groundwater flow. Water Resources Research, 58, e2021WR030966. https:// doi.org/10.1029/2021WR030966   View Abstract Here

Koebele, E., Singletary, L, Hockaday, S., Ormerod, K.J. (2021). What role can water markets play in adapting to climate change? Evidence from two river basins in the western United States. In John C. Duerk (Ed.) Environmental Philosophy, Politics, and Policy. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books. Available online at: https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781793617637/Environmental-Philosophy-Politics-and-Policy

Singletary, L., Koebele, E., Evans, W. et al. Evaluating stakeholder engagement in collaborative research: co-producing knowledge for climate resilience. Socio Ecol Pract Res 4, 235–249 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42532-022-00124-8

York, A. M., Sullivan, A., & Bausch, J. C. (2019). Cross-scale interactions of socio-hydrological subsystems: examining the frontier of common pool resource governance in Arizona. Environmental Research Letters, 14(12), 125019.

York, A.M.; Eakin, H.; Bausch, J.C.; Smith-Heisters, S.; Anderies, J.M.; Aggarwal, R.; Leonard, B. and Wright, K. (2020). Agricultural water governance in the desert: Shifting risks in central Arizona. Water Alternatives 13(2): 418-445.

Theses and Dissertations

Cornachione, E. (2021). Efficiency of Water Markets under Prior Appropriation: Evidence from Permanent Water Rights Sales in Nevada. [Master’s Thesis] University of Nevada, Reno. https://www.proquest.com/docview/2561939187?parentSessionId=wt8TK0O%2Fuaz8QIgDtNBMB%2FUCLulhtiVc5wR8RZW50qM%3D&pq-origsite=primo&accountid=452

Hockaday, S. (2021). Stakeholder Perceptions of Water Rights Transfer Programs and Prior Appropriation in the Western United States: Case Study of the Walker River Basin. Thesis, Master of Science Degree, Geography. University of Nevada, Reno. Available online: https://scholarworks.unr.edu/bitstream/handle/11714/7706/Hockaday_unr_0139M_13365.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Presentations

(* indicates presenter)

1. Boisrame, G., Carroll, R.W.H. (2021). Using machine learning to reduce computational time in a dynamically coupled water allocation and groundwater model. American Geophysical Union Fall meeting. New Orleans, LA. December 13-17
2. Cornachione, E. and M. Taylor. “Efficiency of Water Markets under Prior Appropriation: Evidence from Permanent Water Rights Sales in Nevada.” Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (AERE) Annual Meeting. Virtual. June 3^rd, 2022.
3. Cornachione, E. and M. Taylor. “Efficiency of Water Markets under Prior Appropriation: Evidence from Permanent Water Rights Sales in Nevada.” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting. Austin, Texas. August 2nd, 2022
4. Dobrowolski, J., Brasier, K., Leahy, J., Colletti J., Gagnon, V., Halsover, K., Robertson, T., & Singletary, L.* (Invited Panelist). Water for Agriculture Webinar Series. Water for Agriculture Workshop: Organizing, Funding, and Doing Transdisciplinary and Team Science. The Pennsylvania State University sponsored by the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) Water for Agriculture grant no. 2017-68007-26584/project accession no. 1013079 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Virtual, May 2022. https://water4ag.psu.edu/files/2022/04/W4Ag-May-Workshops-general.pdf
5. “Double Trouble: The Impact of Drought and Litigation on Colorado’s Agricultural Practices” Selected Presentation, 41st Annual AGU Hydrology Days, Virtual Meeting, March 30-31, 2021
6. Eaton, W.*, Manheim, M.*, Smutko, S.*, Edwards, J., Robertson, T., Ryder, S., Singletary, L., Urcuqui-Bustamante, A.M.* (Accepted workshop). A facilitated workshop on advancing stakeholder engagement* in socio-ecological systems. International Association for Society of Natural Resources Conference, San Jose, Costa Rica, June 2022.
7. Gharib, A., Arabi, M., Manning, D., Goemans, C. (2021). Changes in water delivery to agricultural and municipal sectors under current institutions in response to climate change, population growth and rapid urbanization. 41st Annual AGU Hydrology Days. 30-31 March 2021. Fort Collins, CO.
8. Gharib, A., Arabi, M., Manning, D., Goemans, C. (2021). When can Additional Storage and Demand Reductions Facilitate Adaptation to Increasing Water Scarcity? Lessons from the South Platte River Basin of Colorado. AGU Fall Meeting 2021. 13-17 December 2021. New Orleans, LA.
9. Gharib, A., Arabi, M., Blumberg, J., Manning, D., Goemans, C. (2021). Can Investment in Storage Infrastructure Reduce Water Shortages?. 42nd Annual AGU Hydrology Days. 25-27 April 2022. Fort Collins, CO.
10. Gordon, B., Harpold, A. A., Koebele, E., Ajami, N., Boisrame, G., & Andrade, M. A. (2021, December). Adapting index-based vulnerability assessments in rapidly changing coupled upland-agricultural systems in the western US. In AGU Fall Meeting 2021. AGU.
11. Gordon, B.L., Harpold, A., Carroll, R., Ajami, N. (2021) Accounting for built and natural storage is necessary to estimate the true vulnerability of downstream water supplies. American Geophysical Union Fall meeting. New Orleans, LA. December 13-17.
12. Gordon, B., Harpold, A. A., & Crow, W. T. (2020). Using triple collocation of precipitation and evapotranspiration products to reduce uncertainty and improve inferences of catchment-scale water budgets. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts(Vol. 2020, pp. H017-04). December 2020.
13. Gordon, B., Harpold, A. A., & Dralle, D. (2019). The role of plant available water storage capacity in modulating the value of snow accumulation for upland ecosystems. In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts(Vol. 2019, pp. H11P-1739). December 2019
14. Grumstrup, Ethan, K. Rollins, K. Pram and S. Koirala, “The Effect of Climate Change on Agricultural Production with Priority Water Rights,” American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting July 2021.
15. Koebele, E.*, Singletary, L., Hockaday, S., Ormerod, K.J. (Accepted presentation). Water markets as governance innovations: A comparative institutional analysis. Western Policy Science Association Annual Meetings, Virtual, March 2021.
16. Koebele, E., York, A., Singletary, L., and Hockaday, S. April (2021). Stakeholder Perceptions of Water Markets as an Adaptation Strategy to Changing Water Supply and Demand in the Western United States. Western Political Science Association Annual Meeting (virtual).
17. Koebele, E.*, Hockaday, S.* (Invited presentation). Adapting Water Governance Institutions to Cope with Water Supply Challenges in Snow-Dependent River Basins. Center for Environmental Policy and Behavior, U. of California, Davis, September 2020.
18. Koebele, E.*, Wright, K., Singletary, L., Rego, J.J., York, A. (Accepted presentation). Assessing the design and viability of water markets in the western United States via stakeholder perceptions. Western Policy Science Association Annual Meetings, Portland OR, March 2022.
19. Koebele, E., Wright, K., York, A., and Singletary, L. September-October (2021). Water Markets as Governance Innovations: A Comparative Institutional Analysis. Sept-Oct 2021. American Political Science Association Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA.
20. Lee, Gi-Eu, Kimberly Rollins, and Loretta Singletary, “Temporary Transfers and Water Use Efficiency for Prior Appropriations Agricultural Surface Water Rights: Empirical Evidence from Northwestern Nevada,” American Economic Association Virtual Annual Meeting January 2021.
21. “Producer Beliefs and Conservation: The Impact of Perceived Water Scarcity on Irrigation Technology Adoption” NBER: Economic Perspectives on Water Resources, Climate Change, and Agricultural Sustainability, Virtual Meeting, May 12-13, 2022
22. “Producer Beliefs and Conservation Decisions: The Impact of Perceived Water Security on Irrigation Technology Adoption” Selected Paper, AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, Austin, TX, August 1-3, 2021
23. Singletary, L.*, Koebele, E., Evans, W., Copp, C., Hockaday, S., Rego, J.J. (Accepted presentation). A collaborative research framework for co-producing knowledge to enhance climate resilience. University Council on Water Research, Annual Meeting, Greenville SC, June 2022.
24. Singletary, L.*, Koebele, E.*, & Alejandro Andrade-Rodriquez (Invited Panelists) International Visitor Leadership Program, Egypt Group, Water Policy, Modern Irrigation, and Desert Farming Panel with UNR Faculty. Reno NV, May 2022.